Global Growth and Labor Under the Microscope as Markets Eye Fed Pivot

The Week Ahead: Week of June 30, 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
The final week of June and the start of July bring a flurry of critical macroeconomic releases that may shape the policy paths of major central banks heading into Q3. In the U.S., labor market data including ADP, JOLTS, and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls will be scrutinized for evidence of softening job creation or wage moderation. The ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs will offer real-time snapshots of business activity and inflationary trends, while PCE inflation, retail data, and consumer confidence continue to flesh out the broader picture of U.S. economic resilience.

Across the Atlantic, UK GDP will be in focus as markets assess whether growth is stabilizing or stalling in the face of BoE tightening. Meanwhile, German CPI could steer ECB expectations ahead of its July policy meeting. In Asia, Chinese PMIs remain a key barometer of manufacturing vitality amid global demand softness. Holiday-thinned trading later in the week due to U.S. Independence Day (July 4) may amplify market reactions, especially if surprises arise from NFP or ISM data.

Key Events to Watch:

Monday, June 30 – 09:00
UK GDP (YoY) (Q1)
Previous: 1.3% | Forecast: 1.3% | Actual: N/A
The UK economy expanded by 1.3% year-over-year in Q4 2024, reflecting a modest rebound from prior quarters marked by stagnation. Growth was supported by a resilient services sector and temporary fiscal support. Heading into Q1 2025, the BoE’s tightening cycle and external headwinds, including trade frictions and inflation-driven consumer fatigue, may have dampened momentum. A reading in line with the 1.3% forecast would suggest the UK is skirting recession risks for now, reinforcing a “wait-and-see” stance from the BoE. However, any undershoot could trigger renewed dovish bets and pressure the GBP.

Monday, June 30 – 15:00
German CPI (MoM) (Jun)
Previous: 0.1% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Germany’s monthly inflation slowed to 0.1% in May, driven by easing energy prices and subdued food cost pressures. June’s reading will be crucial for ECB watchers, especially after the central bank’s dovish shift. A soft print could reinforce expectations for further rate cuts in the second half of the year, while any reacceleration may complicate the easing cycle and lift Bund yields.

Tuesday, July 1 – 12:00
Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jun)
Previous: 1.9% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Eurozone headline inflation slowed to 1.9% in May, just below the ECB’s 2% target. The June print will either validate the ECB’s June cut or force policymakers to reconsider the pace of future easing. A reading below 1.8% would likely increase confidence in the dovish path, while a higher number may push EUR higher on repricing of terminal rate expectations.

Wednesday, July 2 – 15:15
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun)
Previous: 37K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Last month’s ADP print sharply missed expectations, signaling weakness in private sector hiring. A second soft report would likely boost bets for a dovish Fed pivot. However, a rebound could bolster confidence in the labor market’s durability.

Thursday, July 3 – 15:30
U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun)
Previous: 0.4% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Wage growth remains in focus as a key inflation driver. A hot print above 0.4% would reignite policy tightening fears, while a slowdown could help anchor inflation expectations and provide leeway for the Fed to cut rates later in the year.

Thursday, July 3 – 15:30
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)
Previous: 139K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Job creation slowed to 139K last month, the lowest in nearly a year. A further slowdown could signal rising labor market slack and trigger USD selling and Treasury buying. Conversely, a print above 180K may reassert the economy’s resilience and limit near-term Fed easing expectations.

Thursday, July 3 – 15:30
U.S. Unemployment Rate (Jun)
Previous: 4.2% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The unemployment rate edged up last month, prompting concern about a turning point in labor conditions. A rise above 4.3% could spook markets and fuel rate cut speculation, while a steady or lower rate would reinforce optimism about a soft landing.